The Housing Market Is Expected to Improve in 2026

Leading housing economists believe home sales will increase in 2026, driven primarily by slightly lower mortgage rates and improving inventory levels.

The National Association of REALTORS® forecasts existing home sales could rise by about 14% nationwide in 2026 compared with the previous year.

Several factors are contributing to this potential improvement:

1. Mortgage rates are stabilizing.Mortgage rates are expected to average around 6% during 2026, which is lower than the peaks seen in recent years.

2. Millions more buyers may qualify for loans.Even a one-percentage-point drop in mortgage rates could allow over 5.5 million additional households to qualify for mortgages, bringing more buyers back into the market.

3. Inventory is slowly improving.More homeowners are beginning to list properties as life events—job changes, family needs, and relocations—force them to move despite higher mortgage rates.

For agents, this means transaction volume could finally increase after several slow years.

The Economy Still Creates Uncertainty

Despite signs of improvement, the market is still facing significant economic challenges.

Mortgage rates remain volatile. As of early March 2026, the average 30-year mortgage rate sits around 6% after briefly dipping below that level, reflecting ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty.

At the same time, affordability continues to limit buyer demand. The median U.S. home price is roughly $396,800, and many households still struggle to meet the income needed to purchase a home.

Another major issue is housing supply. The United States still faces a shortage of about 4 million homes, which keeps prices elevated even when sales activity slows.

For real estate agents, this means the market may improve—but it will not necessarily become easy again.

Will More Agents Return to the Business?

During the boom years of 2020–2022, the real estate industry saw a surge of new agents entering the business. But the slowdown that followed forced many to leave.

Recent reports suggest membership levels in the industry are beginning to decline, reflecting a market correction after the pandemic boom.

This trend is likely to continue for several reasons:

1. The market is becoming more competitive

Fewer transactions mean agents must work harder to earn each listing or buyer client.

2. Many part-time agents are exiting

When deals are harder to close, part-time agents often leave the business.

3. Professionalism is rising

Brokerages are increasingly emphasizing training, marketing skills, and production standards.

As the market stabilizes, some agents may return—but the industry may ultimately end up with fewer, more productive agents.

What This Means for Real Estate Professionals

For real estate agents, the coming year may represent a turning point.

The market appears to be shifting from the slowdown of the past few years toward a more balanced environment. Sales activity is expected to rise, mortgage rates are stabilizing, and more buyers may return to the market.

However, success will likely favor agents who:

• Consistently generate leads

• Build strong referral networks

• Invest in marketing and technology

• Develop expertise in their local markets

The days when homes sold instantly with minimal effort are largely gone. The next phase of the market will reward skill, persistence, and strong client relationships.

The Bottom Line

The housing market in 2026 is expected to perform better than 2025, but it will likely be a measured recovery rather than a dramatic rebound.

For agents who stay focused and continue improving their skills, the coming years could offer significant opportunity. At the same time, the industry may continue to see a natural reduction in the number of agents as the market demands greater professionalism and productivity.